Ineos and Erik Ten Hag disagree on injury issue that cost Man United £40m last season

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Erik ten Hag has seemingly retained the support of INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe at Man United – for now – but there are fundamental issues on which the manager and board remain poles apart.

Ten Hag appears to be on slightly steadier footing following Thomas Tuchel’s appointment as England manager. The German was interviewed by United in the summer as part of INEOS’s end-of-season review.

But with United without a win in five across all competitions and enduring their worst ever start to a Premier League season, it is no surprise that, as far as INEOS are concerned, Ten Hag‘s job is far from safe.

The Dutchman’s future was pondered at a monthly board meeting in London last week attended by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, with United’s top brass reportedly split on whether or not to pull the trigger.

It looks as though United’s next two fixtures, against Brentford on Saturday and Jose Mourinho‘s Fenerbahçe the following Thursday, will ultimately determine his fate.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
9	TottenhamTottenham	7	3	1	3	14	8	6	10
10	Nottm ForestNottingham Forest	7	2	4	1	7	6	1	10
11	BrentfordBrentford	7	3	1	3	13	13	0	10
12	West HamWest Ham	7	2	2	3	10	11	-1	8
13	B’mouthBournemouth	7	2	2	3	8	10	-2	8
14	Man UtdManchester United	7	2	2	3	5	8	-3	8
15	LeicesterLeicester	7	1	3	3	9	12	-3	6
16	EvertonEverton	7	1	2	4	7	15	-8	5
17	IpswichIpswich	7	0	4	3	6	14	-8	4
18	Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace	7	0	3	4	5	10	-5	3

In the end, it will be a financial decision. INEOS, as well as Joel and Avram Glazer, will set the scales.

On the one hand, Ten Hag will reportedly be due around £14m in compensation if he is fired.

The margins in terms of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are already razor thin. And with United having only dodged a breach in 2023-24 thanks to £40m of allowable costs, £14m is not a negligible sum.

On the other hand, failing to qualify for European football of any description would be far more costly.

And with every position in the Premier League worth approximately £3m in prize money, the question will have inevitably been framed as whether United can afford not to sack the former Ajax boss.

But from the inverse perspective, Ten Hag will point to a number of issues that have affected the resources – both in terms of personnel and finance – he has been able to invest in his role.

And the latest research illustrates that as much as Ten Hag’s tactical naivety and one-in-ten recruitment hit rate may be to blame for United’s current nadir, there are bigger, systemic issues at play too.

• READ MORE: Details of £90m commercial Man United deal laid bare after clause was triggered, the club will take a big hit

Injuries cost Man United £40m in 2023-24

In 2023-24, Ten Hag repeatedly highlighted how a litany of injuries had thrown his season into chaos.

His rhetoric has spilled over into the current campaign too, reflecting a broader sentiment within football that media revenue and commercial interests are being prioritised over player welfare.

“The top players are overloaded. This is not good for football. It is good for commercial but there is a limit. The players get injured and it is almost unavoidable.

“It is more about the total, clubs and players and coaches and so many others you are there in the football have to work on this to improve the game and find the right balance. At the end of the day, it is commercial and the revenues have to come.

“It’s more about the total industry. It’s about clubs, players and so many others who are there in the of football have to work to improve the game and find the right balance. At the end of the day, it’s financial. We are professional, revenues have to come, but we have to balance this out.”

– Erik Ten Hag, as quoted by The Independent [24/10/2024]

And the data appears to show that the United boss has a point.

According to research from the sports arm of leading insurance brokers Howden, injuries cost United £39.81m last season in wages while players were in the treatment room.

It is not pleasant reading, either for United supporters or the club’s head of sports medicine Gary O’Driscoll, who joined from Arsenal in September last year.

Some commentators have suggested that Ten Hag has occasionally jumped the gun when bringing players back from injury and that the intensity of his training sessions puts players under undue strain.

The more charitable view is that the facilities at Carrington, which is set for a £50m makeover, are well short of the industry standard for elite clubs and that a ballooning match calendar is draining the squad.

It does not make for an easy narrative, but the truth probably somewhere in the middle.

• READ MORE: Man Utd fans all make same point about Kobbie Mainoo after injury update emerges, one major concern is raised

The finance angle: Ten Hag and INEOS at odds over fixture schedule

Accusations that the fixture calendar is becoming bloated are nothing new.

Sir Alex Ferguson routinely condemned the authorities for fixture congestion while his side were fighting on multiple front.

It was the TV companies that bore the brunt of his frustrations. Ten Hag has echoed his sentiment, as has nearly every other manager in the Premier League.

But United and their peers in the most watched football league in the world have made a deal with the devil – and a lucrative one at that.

United’s media income for 2023-24 was £222m, up by nearly £100m over the last decade. The Premier League’s tranche of broadcast deals in the current rights cycle is worth £10bn.

It is this guaranteed year-on-year income that has led to skyrocketing enterprise values for English clubs, especially with truly global brands like United.

The equation as far as Ratcliffe, INEOS and the Glazers are concerned is simple: more matches equals more money.

That is the reason that, despite the fact they will not take part in the controversial tournament, United are reportedly backing FIFA’s expanded, month-long Club World Cup, which will feature 32 teams.

It is also why they privately support of UEFA’s new competition format, which takes the number of Champions League, Europa League and Conference League group stage games per club from six to eight.

That new format in itself was devised in order to placate the European Super League cabal, of which United – who have now distanced themselves from the star-crossed project – were a founding member.

United play 10 times in less than six weeks between now and December and will maintain that pace over the festive period and into the new year.

That is partly to satisfy Amazon’s thirst for broadcast games around Christmas, which increases Prime sign-ups at the ecommerce giant’s busiest time of year.

It’s a dynamic which is perfectly emblematic of the dance between football’s commercial and sporting interests.

• READ MORE: Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Ineos hit with £1.4bn blow that won’t be fixed until 2025

PFA, FIFPro and European Leagues join forces: Legal challenge could bring FIFA masterplan crashing down

Elite players are increasingly voicing their concerns over the fixture calendar.

Man City’s Rodri is arguably the the most high-profile example, going so far as to suggest that players could take collective action to prevent more matches being added to schedule.

“I think we are close to that. If it keeps this way, it will be a moment that we have no other option, but let’s see.”

– Rodri, as quoted by BBC Sport

That eventually may be one step closer this week, with FIFPro and the European Leagues filing a joint complaint against FIFA over their expansion of the international calendar and Club World Cup.

Maheta Molango, the head of the PFA whose appointment was overseen by a panel including United legend Gary Neville has also added his voice to the chorus

“We can no longer talk about player workload, and the impact of the expanding fixture schedule as a problem that’s coming – it’s already here.

“We are now able to look at the current football calendar and see clearly that it just doesn’t work. Players are making their feelings increasingly clear on this. They rightly want their voices to be heard.

“Legal action shouldn’t be needed to ensure that happens, but when key decisions are imposed unilaterally on players and leagues, then action like this becomes inevitable.”

– Maheta Molango, as quoted by FIFPro

It seems we are at an inflection point.

Even if Erik ten Hag is not the man in charge of United in a few weeks time, his successor would almost certainly take the same position over fixture congestion.

And that stance is likely irreconcilable with the suits who make the big financial decisions in the Old Trafford throne room.