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New Opta study reveals Man United’s updated chances of qualifying for Champions League after West Ham draw

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Manchester United rescued an important point against West Ham to continue their push for Champions League football in 2026/27.

Benjamin Sesko’s late goal salvaged a 1-1 draw against West Ham on Tuesday night, which meant Manchester United stayed fourth in the Premier League table.

England are likely to be given a fifth qualifying spot due to positive results from English clubs in Europe this season, so a top-five finish is the aim for Michael Carrick’s side.

How many points will Man Utd get from the next five games? Let’s hear your predictions/hopes…

Michael Carrick took 13 points from his first five…

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Sporting director Jason Wilcox is desperate for Champions League football, and United’s unbeaten start to 2026 has made that a realistic target.

It is a huge improvement from the lows of finishing 15th last season, and now United’s chances of returning to the Champions League have been calculated.

Barcelona v Manchester United - UEFA Champions League Final
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Supercomputer predicts Man United Champions League chances

At the start of the season, United were given a 1% chance of winning the Premier League under Ruben Amorim.

At the end of 2025, the Opta Supercomputer gave United just a 5.3% chance of finishing fourth. Now in February, the Red Devils are sitting fourth in the table.

The latest Opta calculations are now out following United’s draw with West Ham, and it paints a promising picture for Champions League qualification.

United have been given a 58% chance of finishing inside the top five. The most likely finishing position is fifth, with a likelihood of 24.4%.

The Red Devils have been given a zero percent chance of winning the title, with just a 1.3% chance of finishing second, despite being just five points behind Manchester City.

What did Michael Carrick get right with his game management vs West Ham?

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Champions League will mark a good season for Man United

After last season’s 15th-place finish, optimism and positivity was hard to come by around the United fanbase.

But Carrick has restored faith in this side, and now qualifying for the Champions League is not only the target, but a very realistic one.

READ MORE: What Man Utd fans are currently saying about Michael Carrick getting the head coach job full-time

With just 12 games remaining in the Premier League season, United are entering the business stages of the calendar and there is nothing else to play for in 2025/26.

The Champions League will provide a huge financial boost to the club and also help United to attract world-class players to Old Trafford in the summer.