Manchester United failed to end 2025 on a high note after dropping points at home to Premier League strugglers Wolves.
A dismal performance dampened any festive cheer at Old Trafford and left Manchester United in sixth place in the Premier League table for the turn of the year.
It was another missed opportunity for the Red Devils to climb into the top four and strengthen their push for Champions League qualification.
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Ruben Amorim is expected to finish top six by the United ownership, and so far he is on track to achieve that.
But the latest supercomputer predictions are not what Amorim will want to hear.
Opta Supercomputer predictions for Man United
At the start of the season, United were given a 0.6% chance of winning the Premier League title by the Opta Supercomputer. Now at the midway point of the season, it’s hard to argue with that number.
United’s main goal is to return to Europe, and ideally, the Champions League. A top-five finish should be enough to secure that, but the supercomputer is not optimistic about the chances of that happening.
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As per OptaAnalyst, United’s most likely finishing position in 2025/26 is seventh with a 12.4% chance.
United are given a 12.1% chance of finishing fifth, and only a 5.3% chance of finishing fourth.
| Finishing position | Probability |
| 2nd | 0.1% |
| 3rd | 1% |
| 4th | 5.3% |
| 5th | 11.5% |
| 6th | 12.1% |
| 7th | 12.4% |
| 8th | 11.1% |
| 9th | 9.9% |
| 10th | 8.8% |
| 11th | 7.4% |
| 12th | 6.5% |
| 13th | 5.6% |
| 14th | 4% |
| 15th | 2.5% |
| 16th | 1.4% |
| 17th | 0.3% |
Incredibly, the supercomputer predicts United are more likely to finish 17th (0.3%) than 2nd (0.1%).
Ruben Amorim is on track despite slip ups
Pressure is mounting on Amorim again after the 1-1 draw with Wolves.
Wolves picked up just their third point of the season away at Old Trafford which is simply unforgivable from a United point of view.
It is certainly not the only time that United have slipped up as favourites. The defeat to 10-men Everton and draws to West Ham and Bournemouth spring to mind as missed opportunities.
But considering that many fans expected United to finish outside of the European spots, Amorim is on track for where he needs to be.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe has publicly backed Amorim, and it seems the Portuguese head coach will at least get this full season to prove himself.
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