Manchester United sacking Ruben Amorim came out of nowhere, but zooming out, it’s likely because Ineos think they’re on course for a big break from UEFA, which could transform their finances.
Ruben Amorim leaves the team sixth in the table, but in a clustered league, they are as likely to finish 14th as they are to finish fifth or fourth.
The expectation coming into this season was getting European football, preferably Champions League, but Europa League would be a nice building block.
With Ruben Amorim SACKED, where will Manchester United finish in 2025/26?
Let's see your predictions!
However, in the absence of any consistency, Ineos chose to act, and that could be because they think they can’t waste a potentially big break they are on course for.
Ineos on course for big break from UEFA
The Glazers haven’t done much right at Old Trafford, if anything, but some ‘behind the scenes’ lobbying, as explained by GRV Media’s Head of Football Finance and Governance, Adam Williams, could have been made sacking Amorim enticing.
As it stands, United might be sixth in the table, but UEFA’s rule changes mean that just one place above is Champions League qualification, instead of two.
Fifth place is enough to get Champions League next season, and in a league as open as this year, simply a new manager bounce could be worth a quick 12-15 points that seal the qualification.
The reason why that’s the case is because of some behind-the-scenes lobbying by United, which makes England have five UCL places instead of four due to the coefficient system.
Williams explains: “Jamie Bajwa from Sub-Prime Goals made the argument in a recent edition of the Director’s Inbox that European football next season is pretty much a prerequisite for United to keep spending at the level they have in recent years. Otherwise, they are going to have to rely heavily on player sales or further handouts from Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
“Ratcliffe is certainly not on the breadline, but his core business at Ineos is struggling. His liquidity – in essence, how easily he can access cold, hard cash – is low, and his industry as a whole is struggling in Europe. He has invested £1.25bn or more via the part-takeover and a subsequent cash injection, so I don’t think plunging more cash into his Man United project is particularly appealing at present.
So getting a manager who gives them the best chance of European football, even if on a caretaker basis, is financially paramount. But thanks in part to the lobbying United have done behind the scenes, European football’s entry requirements for UEFA competitions favour them.
“The Premier League is again on course to get five spots in the Champions League rather than four next season. And that will likely be the case more often than not in future years too.
“In many ways, they can say a rare ‘thank you’ to the Glazers for that, although clearly the owners haven’t ever done anything out of altruism. It was their lobbying for the Super League and the subsequent attempt to revive it that has driven UEFA to let more teams from the top five leagues in the Champions League.”
New Man Utd boss could have millions more to spend
It goes without saying that Man Utd actually need to up their game and make those top-five spots, but because those spots are so within reach, sacking Amorim became extremely enticing.
How will YOU remember Ruben Amorim? What is his LEGACY at Man Utd?
Ineos have clearly chosen to act in the hopes of taking advantage of a close-knit league by going on a winning run, because that massively influences how their summer pans out.
United absolutely cannot afford to go into another season with no European football, or even UEFA European Conference League football, because the prize money in that competition is minimal.
They need the Europa League at a minimum, and they think sacking Amorim can get them the Champions League, from where they can back the new manager from a position of strength.
That’s something they couldn’t do with Amorim, since he tanked the league to go all-in on winning the Europa League last season, only to fail at the final hurdle because he was inflexible.
It wouldn’t have sat right with Ineos how Amorim then spent weeks explaining why it’s better for the club not to be in Europe, when it was bleeding money.
If sacking him allows them to get Champions League from which they can back the next manager, that’s a gamble worth taking.
The behind-the-scenes lobbying for a fifth UCL spot only made that gamble even less risky, with more reward.
Receive a digest of our best United content each week direct to your mailbox
