Five games into the 2025/26 season, and already, Ruben Amorim has entered must-win territory at Manchester United if he wants to remain long-term.
As Ruben Amorim’s one-year anniversary of being appointed the head coach of Manchester United is quickly approaching, there are as many questions about his team as there were on day one.
This season has seen United struggle through its worst start since the inception of the Premier League, sitting 14th in the table after four games.
As a result of these clear issues, which have been ongoing for 10 months, five managers have been linked with replacing Amorim at United.
Despite the clear growing pressure on Amorim, at the moment, he appears to be safe. This is because Ineos are keeping faith in Amorim, turning things around, although there is an acceptance that improvements are needed.
It is widely assumed that Amorim needs to find wins over the next three games; otherwise, the noise around him might become too loud. However, replacing the Portuguese head coach would be a costly exercise.
Finances involved in Manchester United’s Ruben Amorim dilemma
After United lost the Manchester derby 3-0 to City, there has been growing pressure on Amorim. Part of this has seen the Daily Mail report that it would cost Ineos £12m to part with Amorim before his 12 months in charge.
This is a lot of money, but the money lost by keeping Amorim and not finishing in a European position could be even greater, creating a dilemma for Ineos.
United in Focus has spoken exclusively to football finance expert Adam Williams, who has given some insight into the financial factors behind the dilemma Ineos has.
“Sometimes, when a manager is dismissed, they receive the remaining value of their contract straight away. Other times, they can continue to be paid their salary as normal. And a third possibility is that there is either a negotiated settlement or a pre-agreed termination package.
“But whatever the specifics of his contract, if United did pay Amorim off, then that £12m – if indeed the figures in the reports we’re seeing are accurate – would be expensed straight away.
“In layman’s terms, that means it makes a difference to their bottom line – their profit or loss for the financial year – immediately.
“If United were concerned about PSR, then losing £12m in one fell swoop could be an issue. However, the 2024-25 accounts, which have just been published, hammer home the point that they’ve got plenty of room in terms of the Premier League’s rules.
“UEFA’s Football Earnings test and Squad Cost Ratio rule are somewhat tighter, but the projections I’ve seen suggest they’re going to be okay there too. In any case, that isn’t a pressing issue given that United aren’t in Europe.
“In terms of cash flow, it’s a £12m expense that they wouldn’t necessarily have budgeted for, but it’s not going to require any major reorganising of their finances.
“So, whether or not to sack Amorim is going to be a strategic decision. Obviously, the ‘opportunity cost’ – i.e., the potential cost of not making the decision – is part of that analysis, as is the fact that he is Ineos’ man and they won’t want to appear flaky.
“Each place in the Premier League is worth about £2.8m in prize money, or potentially even a little bit more this season. So the cost of dismissing Amorim would be offset if United think they can finish just four places higher as a result. When you look at the distribution of points in mid-table in the Premier League in recent seasons, four places could be as little as around eight points apart.
“On top of that, you have the possibility of qualifying for Europe. Let’s take the most conservative scenario there. In the Conference League, they would be guaranteed about £5m in prize money. But the real differentiator would be the matchday income that comes with that. It’s at least three matchdays at Old Trafford, which is going to get you around £15m in matchday income, or thereabouts.
“So that £12m starts to look more appealing, and that’s before you look at long-term planning, the cost of squad-building for Amorim’s system, lost commercial benefits and so on.”
Ineos will have to weigh up Ruben Amorim’s risk and reward
This week, it has emerged that United achieved record revenue and a pre-tax loss of just £33m (£98m improvement on 2023/24) over the past year despite the on-field troubles, but another year finishing outside of Europe would be catastrophic for the club’s financials.
Ineos set Amorim the goal of top six, which means they are likely budgeting for this finish in the accounts, with participation in Europe offering another large revenue stream.
So if Amorim doesn’t start winning in the next three games, Ineos may be forced to act sooner rather than later, instead of waiting and being too deep into the season to resurrect top six chances.
Whatever happens, United need at least two wins in the next three, starting against Chelsea this weekend at Old Trafford.
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