Harry Kane has made it as obvious as possible that he wants out of Tottenham without explicitly saying it.
He told Gary Neville’s Overlap Youtube channel he wants to speak with his chairman and needs to make a decision on his future.
Landing England’s top striker is an obvious temptation for United, especially with City in contention to sign him too. But there is another route for United to go down, with winger Jadon Sancho set to cost a similarly expensive fee.
So when spending £100 million plus on a player, you want to be absolutely certain the move will backfire. Especially considering United’s mixed record in the transfer market.
This is where the worries over Kane’s injuries come in.
30 league games once in the last three seasons
Kane has struggled with ankle injuries over the past three seasons.
In 2018/19 he got injured twice, and the latter injury saw him miss the Champions League quarter-final second leg, semi-finals, and return half-fit for the final.
Last season he got injured in January and missed several weeks until the league went into lockdown and he was fit again.
This season he has had more luck, but recently suffered an ankle injury against Everton and then had to sweat on his fitness and rush back for the League Cup final.
In the past three seasons Kane has played 30 Premier League games or more just once, and that is this season.
When spending £100 million plus on a player, you don’t want there to be a high likelihood of them breaking down. Kane’s injury issues have gone somewhat ignored due to his luckier season this year, and United would risk buying high because of that.
With England reliant on Kane too, there is little chance for Kane to get a break.
It is more likely than not, that Kane’s injuries will recur. Past performance is a big predictor of the future. His goals can make up for that, and for some, it will be a risk worth taking.
But if you look at his numbers, it could be argued that he has peaked for Tottenham. He scored 29 league goals in 2016/17, then 30 a year later.
Since then injuries have restricted his league output to 17 goals, 18, and this season 22.
They are still high numbers, and this season he has a career high 13 assists. In a team as good as United’s or City’s, his figures could increase.
Kane’s league goals in the past two seasons are 40, while Danny Ings has 34 and could cost a fraction of the price, allowing money to be spent on other deals.
What we are likely left with regarding Kane’s future, is a Robin van Persie scenario where his fitness would hold up for one outstanding season at his new club, perhaps two, and then he will tail off. He might not even be that lucky.
United tried to repeat the Van Persie trick once by signing Alexis Sanchez and it ended in disaster. Long-term, the Van Persie move didn’t pay off beyond the glorious 2012/13 season, when he joined a title-ready side that only lost the league the previous year on goal difference. United’s current side have a bigger gap on City to overcome.
Kane is a glorious gamble for somebody to take, and if United do go for it, we will get behind the move, but it feels like there are more sensible strategies for the club to take, with Edinson Cavani already here in the short-term, and Jadon Sancho available. There are other areas of the squad which need strengthening which may not be possible if a mega fee is directed towards Kane, considering he would cost more than Sancho.
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