Manchester United’s season is three games old, but it is already on the brink of implosion, and the fortunes can best be summed up by the single risk in signing Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo coming true.
Unlike last season, when Man Utd rarely created chances and every game looked like a chore to sit through, the attacking intent is clear.
Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo have been at the centre of those efforts, as was expected since no “welcome the league” moment was needed for either.
On paper, they are as perfect as a transfer can be, with only one risk attached to both. It sums up the club’s fortunes that even such a small chance is becoming a reality.
Man Utd knew the risk with Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo
Premier League proven, reaching the peak of their careers, playing at a problem position, and coming off the most successful season in England, and they only wanted to join Man Utd.
Cunha and Mbeumo are perfect transfers for Man Utd, and that’s a fact which doesn’t change based on three games.
A transfer can’t possibly have more green flags, and this one had it all, with only a single red flag.
Always count on Man Utd to get battered by that single red flag instead of benefitting from the countless green ones.
For all their goalscoring exploits last season, Mbeumo and Cunha had one thing in common.
Cunha scored 15 league goals last season, but he overshot his xG (Expected goals) by a remarkable 6.55. This is a player who has undershot his xG in six of the last eight seasons.
Mbeumo, on the other hand, overshot his xG by 6.37, scoring 20 league goals from an xG of 13.63. That was the first time he exceeded his xG since coming to England.
Both players had breakout seasons, and a world-class player is expected to exceed their xG because it denotes an average player.
However, the fact that the returns were an anomaly based on previous seasons was a red flag. It sums up United that both have missed gilt-edged chances since arriving at Old Trafford.
They’re effectively regressing to the mean.
Ruben Amorim needs to hold his nerve
While the red flag explained above is concerning, it’s just as likely that last season’s performance is the new normal for both.
After all, the problem so far this season hasn’t been one of hopelessness, because the team has created chances regularly.
At some point, the chances will start getting converted, because undershooting the xG in the long run is just as unlikely as overshooting it enormously.
That will be combined with United ironing out the silly unforced errors they seem to make every game to put themselves in the corner.
Amorim sounds defeated, but the underlying stats suggest this is a dangerous team that has had all the luck ripped away from them.
He needs to hold his nerve and avoid doing something he might regret later. He’s effectively coached at least two wins in three, if not 3/3.
The players need to step up.
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