Hugo Ekitike is Man Utd minimising risk they’ve taken by signing Matheus Cunha and targeting Bryan Mbeumo

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Manchester United’s transfer window has taken a bit of an unexpected turn with their targeting of Hugo Ekitike after signing Matheus Cunha and chasing Bryan Mbeumo but the bigger picture could be a masterstroke.

Man Utd fans are delighted with the signing of Matheus Cunha, a proven Premier League asset who immediately adds goals and assists to a team crying out for them.

Add potentially Bryan Mbeumo to the equation, and that’s 49 goals plus assists last season, even half of which added to Man Utd gets them contending for Europe in the league.

However, there is the same risk attached to both those players despite being classic Sir Alex Ferguson signings, and that’s the risk United might be minimising by targeting Hugo Ekitike.

Man Utd’s risk with Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo

On the surface, Ekitike is actually a player full of risk, from his age profile to his breakout this season, to the dreaded Frankfurt striker curse.

He’s of similar age to Rasmus Hojlund, the 2024/25 season was the first truly world-class one for him and the history of strikers leaving Frankfurt in big-money moves is sketchy, to put it politely.

However, look beneath the surface, and Ekitike minimises the risk that United embraced completely with Cunha and Mbeumo.

Both Cunha and Mbeumo wildly overshot their xG in the league in the 2024/25 season, a trait that was shared by Viktor Gyokeres in Portugal as well.

While that could point to the clinical finishing of both forwards, the fact that they did so to such an extent for the first time in their careers poses a risk.

Was the 2024/25 season an exception to the norm and United will welcome deflated versions or both? Or was it the start of a breakout that will continue at Man Utd?

That’s a huge risk on two players who will be tasked with saving United’s attacking blushes after a nightmare season.

The risk is minimised by Ekitike who lands on the other extreme of that spectrum.

Huge Ekitike minimises Man Utd’s risk

It goes without saying that the transfer fee involved in Ekitike’s sweepstakes is a huge risk but in terms of playing profile, he mitigates the risk of Cunha and Mbeumo.

That is because, unlike the pair, Ekitike undershot his xG in the league last season by a huge amount.

Ekitike scored 15 league goals from an xG of more than 23, which could point to wasteful finishing but in the long run, the goals figure almost always matches the xG.

It speaks of a player who is reliably creating opportunities for himself or finding himself at the end of the best chances.

Theoretically, that makes his ceiling higher than Cunha, who scored 15 from an xG of just 8.45, or Mbeumo, who scored 20 from an xG of 13.63.

Ekitike’s xG alone was more than that of Cunha and Mbeumo combined, so in an ideal world, he would flourish as soon as he takes the next step and starts converting chances at even an average level.

That alone would make him world-class. Cunha and Mbeumo’s floor is high, but their ceiling is up for debate until they prove 2024/25 was not an anomaly.

Ekitike, on the other hand, has world-class underlying stats. His floor is already good enough, but his potential is salivating.