Crisis mode already after three games sounds impatient but Manchester United are a club that is always one loss away from it.
Therefore, two losses in three games, especially one against fierce rivals at home is quite an alarming territory to be in for the club.
The situation is even more tense for Erik ten Hag, as Ineos made no effort to hide the fact they openly talked to other candidates in the summer before giving him a contract extension.
Omar Berrada and Dan Ashworth have already reiterated their commitment to the Dutchman, but in football, a “statement of confidence” is meaningless.
Now, Adam Williams, GRV Media’s Head of Football Finance and Governance Content, has explained how Ineos could have a potentially staggering £110 million at stake to force them into drastic action on Ten Hag.
Financial ramifications of decision on Erik ten Hag
Three games into the league season, United are already six points behind Liverpool and Manchester City, while they haven’t looked convincing even in their narrow win.
It doesn’t leave fans with much hope for the season unless the playing style and results change drastically over the course of the season.
Currently in the Europa League, everyone at Old Trafford has made it clear that getting back into the Champions League is the top aim, no matter how much Ten Hag celebrates the FA Cup and Carabao Cup of the past two seasons.
It is a harsh reality of modern football and Ten Hag will be well aware of it. On current form, United are outsiders for a top-four spot and that could leave the club in a financial hole next season.
Adam Williams explains: “For United, their commercial and matchday income does insulate them to an extent from the financial impact of failing to qualify for the Champions League.
“That said, it is a bad time to slip away from Europe’s top table given that the new format could be worth up to an extra £23m to English clubs per season.
“That is on top of the cash that clubs earned from the competition under the previous distribution system. All in all, I think the maximum you can earn from the expanded format is the thick end of £130m.
“That is before you talk about extra matchday income and the commercial benefits the Champions League brings.
“I think United can sustain their sponsorship portfolio without European football better than most, but four lost matchdays at Old Trafford could see them miss out on £20m based on figures in their most recent accounts.
“Sir Jim Ratcliffe wants to move to a more incentive-based contract structure, but in the meantime United still have a lot of contracts on the books that, although there will be step-down clauses in the event of failing to qualify for Europe, they will not be as substantial as other clubs have implemented.
“If United qualified for the Europa League instead, the absolute maximum they could bank is somewhere around £40m. But they would have to win the competition for that to happen, plus get all the match bonuses. So it is a dramatic cliff edge.”
Therefore, in a best-case scenario, United can earn only £40 million from the Europa League, while adding up £130 million and £20 million from a best-case run in the Champions League, it is clear that United will leave £110 million on the table by missing out on top four this season.
Just playing the eight league games in the Champions League is more lucrative than going all the way in the Europa League. There’s no comparison, no matter how many FA Cups and Carabao Cups Ten Hag manages to win with this side.
When do Ineos act?
It is obviously too soon to pull the panic alarm and set things in motion as, despite the two defeats, there have been signs that United are at least creating chances.
They have been extremely wasteful and if that improves, they should win more than they lose. However, teething, systemic problems remain which makes it unlikely that they are consistent enough to crash the top-four.
Injuries were a mitigating factor last season but even that might not save Ten Hag this year. It is fair to expect that for all their backing, if Ineos sense that the team is falling behind in the race for the top-four, they will pull the trigger.
It would maybe be questionable to assume that if Ten Hag was “their man”, but it’s clear he’s the one they have “settled on” after talking to alternatives.
Of course, all of it could be for naught if cup specialist Ten Hag manages to go all the way in the Europa League, thereby earning a UCL place.
However, Ten Hag might not stay long enough to engineer that run if the league results continue collapsing at the current rate.
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