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How Man Utd’s Europa League performances have impacted Premier League results and why the pattern could mean bad news for Leicester City

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After being dumped out of the FA Cup by Fulham, Manchester United are left competing on two fronts.

The Red Devils’ season has been a disaster. Although they won’t be relegated, they’re set to finish the lowest in their history in the Premier League.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
12 BrentfordBrentford28 11 5 12 48 44 4 38
13 TottenhamTottenham28 10 4 14 55 41 14 34
14 Man UtdManchester United28 9 7 12 34 40 -6 34
15 EvertonEverton28 7 12 9 31 35 -4 33
16 West HamWest Ham28 9 6 13 32 48 -16 33

European salvation is still possible though… Qualification into next season’s Champions League via the league is out of reach, but Manchester United can still make the cut by winning the Europa League.

And judging by how mid-week performances have impacted domestic form, fans can probably expect the rollercoaster to continue.

READ: Unai Emery hails ‘fantastic’ Marcus Rashford moment for Aston Villa in the Champions League

Real Sociedad de Futbol v Manchester United - UEFA Europa League 2024/25 Round of 16 First Leg
Photo by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images

Man United have dealt with busy schedule well

Manchester United will host Real Sociedad on Thursday night for a Last 16 second leg tie. The fixture’s first leg scoreline is 1-1 thanks to a 57th minute goal from Joshua Zirkzee.

Pressure is on the Red Devils to perform against the Spaniards. Sir Jim Ratcliffe is pinning everything on the side taking a step closer to May’s final at the Estadio de San Mames Stadium.

Although United remain unbeaten in Europe this season, their journey to this point has been far from plain sailing — something the side would’ve been expecting after Ruben Amorim claimed the Europa League is harder to win than the Champions League.

At the time of writing, Manchester United have played nine European fixtures; eight in the league phase. They’ve won five and drawn four.

DateCompetitionFixtureResult
25.09.24Europa LeagueMan Utd vs FC Twente1-1
29.09.24Premier LeagueMan Utd vs Spurs0-3
03.10.24Europa LeaguePorto vs Man Utd3-3
06.10.24Premier LeagueAston Villa vs Man Utd0-0
24.10.24Europa LeagueFenerbahce vs Man Utd1-1
27.10.24Premier LeagueWest Ham vs Man Utd2-1
07.11.24Europa LeagueMan Utd vs PAKO2-0
10.11.24Premier LeagueMan Utd vs Leicester3-0
28.11.24Europa LeagueMan Utd vs Bodo/Glimt3-2
01.12.24Premier LeagueMan Utd vs Everton4-0
12.12.24Europa LeagueViktoria Plzen vs Man Utd1-2
15.12.24Premier LeagueMan City vs Man Utd1-2
23.01.25Europa LeagueMan Utd vs Rangers2-1
26.01.25Premier LeagueFulham vs Man Utd0-1
30.01.25Europa LeagueFCSB vs Man Utd0-2
02.02.25Premier LeagueMan Utd vs Crystal Palace0-2
06.03.25Europa LeagueReal Sociedad vs Man Utd1-1

Interestingly, every time United have failed to win in Europe, Amorim has also been unable to take three points from the side’s next Premier League match.

Similarly, except for their 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace in February, United have followed their European victories up with a win in their next Premier League game, meaning they have an 80% back-to-back win rate when playing mid-week.

Real Sociedad result could be bad news for Leicester City

Even though there is a lot more to football than stats and data patterns, it is clear Manchester United have kept their momentum whenever they’ve won mid-week.

The Red Devils are expected to beat Real Sociedad on Thursday, and if they do win at Old Trafford, Leicester City, who United play on Saturday, could be Amorim’s next victim.

The Foxes were thumped 3-0 by Manchester United in the Premier League’s reverse fixture. That match was before Amorim had taken charge though…

Ruud van Nistelrooy was in the Old Trafford dugout on an interim basis. The Dutchman, now in a permanent role, is in charge of Leicester City and is preparing to travel back to his old stomping ground in the hope of pulling off an upset.